Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
